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Measure Experiences
Discover how Value Measurement is used to predict the outcomes of real-life and recorded experiences.
How it Works
Learn how you can measure your experiences with a simple app -- for free.
Case Studies
Real world results using real-time Value Measurement for audience experiences.
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Add Value Measurement to your app, product, service or embed into your experience.

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Measure Well-being
The science of Value Measurement can measure & predict the emotional fitness of you and your customers.
SIX
Six key moments unlock a brighter, bolder you. Learn how SIX will help you discover what they are and when they happen every day.
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Add Value Measurement for Well-Being to your health, fitness, or team applications.
Dating-Reality-Shows

PREDICTING REALITY TV SHOW RATINGS

Traditional techniques are unable to forecast ratings of unscripted TV shows.

As much as 75% of new TV programming is unscripted.

PROJECT INFORMATION

MEASURING THE VALUE OF REALITY TV

One-half of the 400 highest rated shows on television in 2017 were unscripted "reality" TV. These run the gamut from rating darlings Survivor and America's Got Talent to disappointments like Comfort Food Tour and Flipping Virgins. 

So many unscripted TV shows fail to find an audience that production companies are typically underpaid for several years after a show first airs, even if they are hits, while cable channels often overpay for new scripted shows that only produce mediocre ratings. This misalignment of resources hurts both producers and distributors of entertainment and disappoints viewers.

reality-2

Pretty awesome, right?

You should download the full case study and send it to a friend.  A little neuroscience goes a long way. 

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THE STUDY

Dorsey Pictures challenged us to see if our neurologic measure of value could differentiate top-rated, unscripted TV shows from bottom-rated shows.  This sounded interesting, so we agreed to another blind study.

Immersion has used Value Measurement data from our platform to predict sales bumps from video ads, YouTube views, movie ticket sales from trailers, and social shares from TV commercials, but had not tried to forecast TV ratings that could depend on many factors besides the quality of the content. We were not even sure how much content we needed to evaluate.

Here's what we decided to do: Dorsey Pictures picked top- and bottom-rated shows from six major U.S. cable TV channels, 25 shows in all. They identified the target demographic for these shows (ages 25-58, equally balanced between men and women) and we recruited 84 people and paid them to watch content. But, how much content? We decided to see if showing people the first act of shows (8-10 minutes) would be enough to predict ratings winners. Because people get tired and bladders get full, each person watched either 12 or 13 of the first-acts of shows. Our technology measures the neurologic value people get every second of an experience, so we collected over half a million seconds of neurologic data.

25 Reality TV Shows
84% Accuracy in predicting television ratings
84 People in study cohort

THE RESULTS

We estimated a logistic regression model to measure how accurately neurologic data would identify the 10 top-rated shows from the 15 with low ratings. Two neurologic measures – average immersion (Value Score) and frustration (significantly low value) – were sufficient to identify the best shows with 84% accuracy. When we added the variable "have you seen this show," predictive accuracy increased to 88%.

How about self-reports? We asked people which shows they intended to watch, and this only predicted the top-rated shows with 17% accuracy. Adding "I intend to watch this show" to the neurologic model did not improve the predictive accuracy at all.

In fact, none of the self-reported measures of whether people "liked" a show or thought the show was "good" were statistically predictive of ratings.

People cannot accurately report what they want to watch, but their brains – when properly measured – can tell us.

Learning #1
Value Measurement should be used to test new show concepts and pilots to predict the ratings they are likely to receive and this information should be part of the sales negotiation.
Learning #2
Value Measurement should be used to edit shows for the highest audience impact and to identify audience segments that got the most value – these fans will share and discuss the shows they love.

  
Learning #3
Commercials should be edited to raise the Value Score in order to drive audiences to watch shows.
Get your own Value Score for free

SCAN THE QR BELOW TO TRY IT OU

The SIX app lets you measure the mental and emotional impact of your television content, and predict their success. Get a free Value Score to identify how your pilot shows resonate with audiences and forecast whether they'll be a hit.

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"This case study was another 'stretch' for us in which we examined if we could help independent TV producers identify hit shows. It's another example of how Value Measurement has universal applications because it comes from evolutionarily old parts of the human brain."
Paul ZakFounder

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